Editorial Type:
Article Category: Research Article
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Online Publication Date: 19 May 2020

A Spatially Explicit Model to Predict the Relative Risk of Golden Eagle Electrocutions in the Northwestern Plains, USA

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Page Range: 110 – 125
DOI: 10.3356/0892-1016-54.2.110
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Abstract

Electrocution of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) on overhead power poles is a conservation concern in the western United States. The US Fish and Wildlife Service recommends retrofitting power poles to minimize electrocution risk as one mechanism for compensatory mitigation to offset permitted take for Golden Eagles. Because densities of Golden Eagles and power poles vary spatially, identifying where poles should be retrofitted to best meet compensatory mitigation goals is of conservation importance. We developed a model that predicts relative risk of eagle electrocution based on the overlap between spatial models of Golden Eagle nest-site density and power pole density within the Northwestern Plains ecoregion. Risk was unevenly distributed: areas with the highest electrocution risk were rare (1.1% by area), while lowest risk areas were common (53.6% by area). We tested model predictions with independent data consisting of locations of Golden Eagle electrocution mortalities (n = 342). Mortalities were distributed among six risk classes proportional to model predictions, with 87.7% of mortalities occurring in the top three risk categories. Prioritizing pole retrofitting in the highest-risk areas could prevent >3 × the electrocutions expected by selecting areas at random and would be 89 × more effective than retrofitting in the lowest risk areas. Our risk model offers a consistent method to spatially prioritize retrofitting to increase effectiveness of electrocution reduction for Golden Eagle conservation and provides an efficient approach for utilities. This method of quantifying spatial overlap between indices of exposure and hazard is repeatable and accurate, and can be adapted to various forms of data whenever quantification and visualization of spatial prioritization is desired.

Resumen

La electrocución de Aquila chrysaetos en postes eléctricos aéreos es causa de preocupación para su conservación en el oeste de Estados Unidos. El Servicio de Pesca y Vida Silvestre de este país recomienda reacondicionar los postes eléctricos para minimizar el riesgo de electrocución, como un mecanismo de mitigación compensatoria para equilibrar la extracción permitida de individuos de esta especie. Debido a que las densidades de A. chrysaetos y de los postes eléctricos varían espacialmente, identificar dónde reacondicionar estos postes es de importancia para conservar esta especie así como para lograr los objetivos de mitigación compensatoria. Desarrollamos un modelo que predice el riesgo relativo de electrocución de las águilas basado en la superposición entre los modelos espaciales de densidad de sitios de nidificación de A. chrysaetos y de densidad de postes eléctricos dentro de la ecorregión de las Llanuras del Noroeste. El riesgo se distribuyó de manera desigual: las áreas con el riesgo de electrocución más alto fueron raras (1.1% por área), mientras que las áreas con el riesgo más bajo fueron comunes (53.6% por área). Evaluamos las predicciones del modelo con datos independientes de sitios con mortalidad por electrocución de A. chrysaetos (n = 342). Las muertes estuvieron distribuidas entre seis clases de riesgo de modo proporcional a las predicciones del modelo, con un 87.7% de las muertes ocurriendo en las tres categorías principales de riesgo. Priorizar el reacondicionamiento de los postes en las áreas de alto riesgo podría prevenir tres veces más las electrocuciones que las esperadas mediante la selección de áreas al azar y sería 89 veces más efectivo que reacondicionar tendidos en las áreas de riesgo más bajo. Nuestro modelo de riesgo ofrece un método consistente para priorizar espacialmente el reacondicionamiento, que aumenta la efectividad de la reducción de electrocución para la conservación de A. chrysaetos y proporciona un enfoque eficiente para las compañías. Este método de cuantificación de la superposición espacial entre índices de exposición y peligro es repetible y preciso, y puede ser adaptado a varios tipos de datos siempre que se desee cuantificar y visualizar la priorización espacial.

[Traducción del equipo editorial]

Copyright: © 2020 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc. 2020
Figure 1.
Figure 1.

The Northwestern Plains study area and the PRECorp service area.


Figure 2.
Figure 2.

Predictive models of (a) Golden Eagle nest-site density (area-adjusted frequency; Dunk et al. 2019a), and (b) distribution power pole density (poles per km2; Dwyer et al. 2018).


Figure 3.
Figure 3.

(a) Relative risk of electrocution for Golden Eagles in the Northwestern Plains. Map colors correspond with relative risk categories shown in the risk matrix (b). Risk matrix values are the percentage of the total assessed area (474,170 km2) in each risk combination.


Figure 4.
Figure 4.

(a) Relative risk of electrocution for Golden Eagles in the PRECorp service area. Map colors correspond with relative risk categories shown in risk matrices (b) and (c). Values are (b) the percentage of the total assessed area (38,793 km2) and (c) counts of Golden Eagle electrocutions (n = 342) in each risk combination.


Figure 5.
Figure 5.

Ratio of observed-to-expected Golden Eagle electrocution mortalities by (a) relative risk category, (b) Golden Eagle density bin, and (c) power pole density bin. The number of expected mortalities was based on the assumption that electrocutions occurred uniformly throughout the PRECorp service area. Colored bars correspond with the color matrices in Figure 4 and are labeled with observed-to-expected ratio values. The dashed line represents the null hypothesis (ratio of observed to expected electrocutions = 1).


Figure 6.
Figure 6.

Relative proportion of predicted (a) Golden Eagle nest-site density (area-adjusted frequency [AAF]) and (b) power pole density per km2 in the PRECorp service area (black line) compared with 342 Golden Eagle electrocution locations (gray bars). The y-axis of (b) was limited to y = 0.25 to display at this scale; the maximum value was ca. 0.70.


Contributor Notes

1 Email address: geoffrey_bedrosian@fws.gov

Associate Editor: Steven J. Slater

Received: 01 Apr 2019
Accepted: 11 Oct 2019
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