Distribution Modeling of Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida) in Mexico
The Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida; hereafter spotted owl) is discontinuously distributed in the United States and Mexico. It is an understudied raptor and categorized as near threatened, with populations in rapid decline. Defining the distribution of the spotted owl can help delineate priority areas for monitoring and research. Using the Maxent algorithm, with seven climatic variables and 153 owl presence records, we generated the potential distribution of spotted owl in Mexico. Our distribution model had high predictive accuracy and defined potential areas in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Sierra Madre Oriental, and the Transverse Neovolcanic Belt. These areas were concentrated in the states of Durango, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Aguascalientes, and Chihuahua, as well as within four protected natural areas. Four weather variables contributed 81.8% to the model's prediction: mean diurnal temperature range (BIO 2, 33.5%), maximum temperature of the warmest month (BIO 5, 30.4%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (BIO 11, 10.5%) and the amount of precipitation in the wettest month (BIO 13, 7.4%). We recommend population monitoring in areas of climatic suitability predicted by the model to improve knowledge about the status of the Mexican Spotted Owl. Modelado de la Distribución de Strix occidentalis lucida en México El búho Strix occidentalis lucida se distribuye de manera discontinua en Estados Unidos y México. Es una rapaz poco estudiada y actualmente se encuentra Casi Amenazada, dado que sus poblaciones están disminuyendo rápidamente. Definir la distribución de S. o. lucida puede ayudar a delimitar áreas prioritarias para seguimiento e investigación. A través del algoritmo Maxent, con siete variables climáticas y 153 registros de presencia, generamos la distribución potencial de S. o. lucida en México. Nuestro modelo de distribución tuvo una alta precisión predictiva y definió áreas potenciales en la Sierra Madre Occidental, la Sierra Madre Oriental y el Eje Neovolcánico Transverso. Estas áreas se concentraron en los estados de Durango, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Aguascalientes y Chihuahua, así como también dentro de cuatro áreas naturales protegidas. Cuatro variables climáticas contribuyeron con el 81.8% a la predicción del modelo: rango diurno medio de temperatura (BIO 2, 33.5%), temperatura máxima del mes más cálido (BIO 5, 30.4%), temperatura media del trimestre más frío (BIO 11, 10.5%) y cantidad de precipitación en el mes más húmedo (BIO 13, 7.4%). Recomendamos el seguimiento poblacional de S. o. lucida en las áreas de mayor idoneidad climática predichas por el modelo para mejorar el conocimiento de su estatus. [Traducción de los autores editada]ABSTRACT
RESUMEN
Environmental suitability for the Mexican Spotted Owl in the Sierra Madre Occidental. The map indicates continuous logistic prediction with darker areas (values closer to 1) that have higher climatic suitability. The circles indicate known Mexican Spotted Owl occurrences. The dotted lines outline the protected natural areas.
Environmental suitability for the Mexican Spotted Owl in the Sierra Madre Oriental. The map indicates continuous logistic prediction with darker areas (values closer to 1) that have higher climatic suitability. The circles indicate known Mexican Spotted Owl occurrences. The dotted lines outline the protected natural areas.
Environmental suitability for the Mexican Spotted Owl in the Transverse Neovolcanic Belt. The map indicates continuous logistic prediction with darker areas (values closer to 1) that have higher climatic suitability. The circles indicate known Mexican Spotted Owl occurrences. The dotted lines outline the protected natural areas.
Response curves showing the probability of occurrence of Mexican Spotted Owl based on the most important predictors derived from the species distribution model.
Variation in regularized training gain for climatic predictors from a species distribution model for the Mexican Spotted Owl using a jack-knife test of variable importance. Light gray bars represent regularized gain without the variable and dark gray bars represent regularized gain with only the one variable.
Contributor Notes
1 Email address: pmslopez@gmail.com
Associate Editor: Jessi L. Brown